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5/18/2018 – How High Can Amazon (AMZN) Go?

Amazon (AMZN) Stock Logo

5/18/2018 – How High Can Amazon (AMZN) Go?

May 18, 2018 Posted by Limit5Bass AMZN - Amazon 1 comment

So how high can the share price of Amazon (AMZN) go? That is a question asked by all kinds of investors. Some think the stock is over-valued already. Others sit on the other side of the fence stating that with AMZN’s growth it is undervalued.

One of the biggest hurdles that AMZN’s share price has faced over the last year is scrutiny from the President of the United States. The POTUS is very critical of the Washington Post, a newspaper outlet owned by Amazon’s founder Jeff Bezos. Maybe you have heard the POTUS use the words “fake news” when he refers to the newspaper. The POTUS also hasn’t had many kind words for Amazon the company either.

But even with these headwinds, AMZN’s share price has seen some nice appreciation over the last year. By rough estimates it looks like those gains are in the ballpark of 50% or so…..

It’s time to jump to the charts and see what price targets can be calculated. Time to dive in!

Amazon (AMZN) – Upside Price Targets

This is a 10 year monthly candlestick chart for Amazon (AMZN). I like to start with a monthly candlestick chart to analyze the stock price’s long-term trend. More specifically, I like to analyze the long-term buying volume and buying momentum.

I’ve placed 3 different Fibonacci Extension Tools on different uptrends. I use this tool to calculate price targets and look for confluence areas. Confluence areas are defined as areas where 2 or more Target Lines from different Fibonacci Tools intersect. Over the years I have noticed that when there is a confluence area of 2 or more Target Lines the chances of reaching that price level seem to increase.

Amazon (AMZN)

Analyzing Upside Price Targets for Amazon (AMZN) Using Fibonacci Extension Tools & Looking for Confluence Areas

There seems to be an interesting confluence area around the $[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]…….

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I look at some pullback areas to begin building a position in the stock as well as calculate an upside price targets for the longer-term.

If you are not a Trendy Stock Charts member, consider joining today! There are several different subscription plans available.[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]2,200 price level for AMZN’s share price. Shorter-term it looks like AMZN could still push up towards the $1,726 price level before consolidating like some of the below charts indicate.

Reaching the $2,200 price level would probably be at least 9-12 months out. That could be extended a little longer if AMZN’s share price has entered into a consolidation period. If the above Elliott wave labeling is correct, AMZN should not have any extended period above $1,638 in the next month or two.

AMZN – 5 Year Weekly Chart

Let’s next look at a 5 year weekly candlestick chart for AMZN. A couple weeks back AMZN formed a Northern Doji candlestick pattern. Since this candlestick pattern developed on a weekly chart, it suggests a possible longer-term consolidation period. AMZN’s share price will confirm another uptrend when it closes above the resistance area from the Northern Doji candlestick.

Amazon (AMZN)

Analyzing Candlestick Patterns on a 5 Year Weekly Candlestick Chart for Amazon (AMZN)

One thing to watch for is a lower low as compared to this weeks low price. A lower low next week and I would think a re-test of the $1,350 price level is in play.

If AMZN’s share price does make a lower low next week, I would think that the MACD Histogram would continue to show increasing selling momentum on its weekly candlestick chart. A MACD Histogram with increasing selling momentum indicates a possible longer correction. At least until the MACD Histogram on the weekly chart starts to show decreases in the selling momentum.

A longer-term correction could lead to a pullback around the $1.200 price level, especially if there is a break of the $1,350 support area.

AMZN – Moving Averages

This is a 1 year daily candlestick chart to analyze AMZN’s share price from a shorter-term perspective. AMZN’s price action according to the moving averages suggests a continued consolidation. At a minimum I think AMZN’s share price will re-test the lower of the 2 gap-up ares from the recent uptrend.

Amazon (AMZN)

Analyzing Amazon (AMZN) Using Moving Averages on a 1 Year Daily Candlestick Chart

Any shares sold at current price levels could be repurchased on a re-test of the lower gap-down area around $1,475. However, if AMZN’s share price is entering into a longer consolidation period, which I think it might be, then the $1,350 price level could be the low point of the consolidation.

If any shares are sold at current price levels, consider using a scale-in strategy to repurchase those shares. The $1,475 and $1,350 price levels would be the repurchase levels.

Watching AMZN’s price action around the 50 Day moving average will provide clues as to the length of the consolidation. A break below it on heavy volume and the chances for a longer consolidation period increase.

AMZN – Point & Figure Charts

Let’s peek at the price targets from the Point & Figure charts to see if they provide any insight.

High/Low P&F Chart – $1,639 Bullish Price Objective

Closing P&F Chart – $1,839 Bullish Price Objective

Considering AMZN’s share price currently sits around the $1,575 price level, both P&F Charts provide for more upside. However there could be better entry price levels rather than the current price.

Amazon (AMZN) – Summary

The probability of higher prices for AMZN’s share price is very likely. The weekly and daily candlestick charts indicate that AMZN’s share price may offer better entry levels to go long and reach the overall price target of $2,200.

Once AMZN’s share price closes above the resistance area from the Norther Doji candlestick pattern, the uptrend is confirmed and the march towards the $2,200 price level should be in process. A probable re-test of the 2 gap-ups will happen before the close above the Northern Doji’s resistance area, IMO.

Watching the weekly MACD Histogram should provide the biggest clue as to whether the consolidation continues for several more weeks or not.

Good luck trading and ask away with any questions!

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Tags: AmazonAMZNBullish Price ObjectivesConfluence of Target LinesFibonacci Extension Tool to Calculate Upside PotentialJeff BezosMoving Average AnalysisNorthern Doji Candlestick Pattern Resistance AreaP&F ChartPoint & Figure ChartWashington Post
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About Limit5Bass

I am a stock chart analyst that uses various forms of technical analysis to calculate buy and sell targets for companies and their share prices. TSC Members can request a stock analysis and article for any publicly traded company.

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  • Limit5Bass
    · Reply

    Author
    June 5, 2018 at 9:19 PM

    AMZN’s share price has closed above the Northern Doji resistance area and therefore should be marching towards the $2,200 price level.

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